Oil Prices Surge Above $102 After Trump Threatens to Block Strait of Hormuz

Global oil prices have experienced a sharp increase following statements by former US President Donald Trump regarding a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The price of Brent crude oil once again surpassed the $100 per barrel mark.

The cost of June futures for Brent crude on the London ICE exchange rose by 7.27 percent, exceeding $102 per barrel, according to trading data as of 08:00 Astana time. Concurrently, May futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 8.55 percent, reaching $104.83 per barrel.

The market reaction comes after a breakdown in talks between the US and Iran, which began in Islamabad on Saturday, April 11th. By Sunday morning, US Vice President JD Vance announced that an agreement had not been reached, and the American delegation was returning home after lengthy but fruitless negotiations.

Later that same day, Trump declared that the United States would begin blocking all vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He also instructed the US Navy to monitor such ships and intercept those that had made payments to Iran for passage.

An expert from Kazakhstan's oil and gas sector previously noted that rising oil prices bring additional revenues to the state budget, strengthen the National Fund, improve the trade balance, and support the tenge's exchange rate. However, high volatility in the oil market creates risks for the economy.

Price fluctuations can impact inflation, investments, and financial markets. The economy's dependence on oil revenues makes it sensitive to external shocks and sudden changes in global prices. For reference, Kazakhstan's budget for 2026–2028 is based on an oil price of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of 540 tenge per dollar for calculating export revenues and budgetary expenditures.